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Live Well Work Well – February 2023 How Cold Weather Affects Tire Pressure Zalma’s Insurance Fraud Letter – February 1, 2023 Startup 101: What goes in a startup data room Pull, Don’t Push: How Catalysts Overcome Barriers and Drive Product Adoption Headspace Health goes international, launches with employers based in the U.K. 5 Interesting Learnings from Jamf at $500 Million in ARR What is Hindenburg Research, the firm that has taken billions off the net worth of Asia’s richest man? ARK’s Cathie Wood predicts these innovations will soar in value to $200 trillion by 2030 America may soon lose a Muslim, African-born lawmaker from its Foreign Affairs Committee: Ilhan Omar
11-25-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Weekly Market Recap and Analysis

11-25-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Weekly Market Recap and Analysis

11-25-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Weekly Market Recap and Analysis

Tough week really a tough two weeks of trading since CPI that we have had. Tight ranges, quite a bit of volatility which is surprising for a VIX at near 20. But overall I feel despite finishing with my first red week since September 12th that I ended on a positive note. I felt a little off earlier in the week and struggled but today I ended on a good note. I had one swing play that closed red today (IV crush was wild today) but other then that I had 3 scalps for 100% win rate and had 4 level to levels for a 100% win rate.

https://preview.redd.it/qdj4cdvju52a1.png?width=234&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8615846d1fe213c2ccd9d0d9f1b96bcb5af505d

Spy had the tightest range day I have ever seen it had not even breaking a full $2 move and we also saw IV in the teens and even hit single digits EOD. The IV right now is at the lowest I have seen it in months.

https://preview.redd.it/uer00k9ku52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=490e09d43fea832408546dc09b2e51326f04c052

This is the best chart I could find (for free) to show historical trends… but as of today the IV RANK (blue line) is at the lowest level it has been at since April 4th (4 days after the March/ April peak) and IV percentile (green line) is the lowest it has been since November 21st 2021 (which is when spy was hitting 472.4 resistance and closing in on its ATH. While the actual IV % hasn’t really been too helpful trend wise we are seeing though that when the IV rank hits these levels is when we have typically seen the peak put in. this also is correlating well with us closing in on that 2022 bear market resistance line which on the weekly time frame has us right around 410 for next week.

https://preview.redd.it/wq0rkxrku52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=a4493728faa55349ab370771fe0df89983020f73

When we look at the daily chart here we can see we have put in some pretty stout resistance right there at 402.4 with two candle bodies rejecting it and the November 15th wick hitting that level too.

This is our key level until we close over this level I am going to start looking for a retrace. There is a pretty good chance come Monday that we see that blue rising wedge support broken. We need to see SPY open over 402.4 and hold it all day otherwise that rising wedge is broken and I will expect a retrace. However, if we can hold that support then I don’t see a reason why we don’t touch that 405.2 channel resistance.

The daily candle while small is technically a gravestone doji with a double top, however, due to the short day today and the overall low IV I wanted to wait till Monday to act on this. I don’t trust this shorten day to make a full play on it.

https://preview.redd.it/jzruv1alu52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=95fd8bfefc65dbe59a5e8bdb564fd33ab95d5b5d

Pretty similar picture here on the weekly. Unless we open over 403.3 and hold that support all week we break the weekly support and will see a sell off back to the 390 to 398 range.

If the weekly can find support and a green open I will look for 408.9 channel resistance and then the bear market resistance line is that 410 as I mentioned earlier.

Interestingly enough this is actually the first back to back green months that SPY has put in all year and the first back to back green months since July/ August 2021.

I am going to watch this weekly rising wedge closely and watch that 410 bear resistance closely. I did decide to sit cash all weekend so that I could see what Monday brought and while I note IV is the lowest it has been in months I wasn’t quite willing to take a risk on a play over the weekend.

https://preview.redd.it/4f16surlu52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=b323208a4220b4b1ae722d89feb4007124d6644a

Much of the same here on Futures as we did back test and hold that daily 20ema finishing with a doji here. However, on Futures you can see that it actually turned 4033 previous resistance into support with 4050 being the next resistance.

https://preview.redd.it/ztvrivamu52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=409d09e9885f281bb7c89be90edcc62897defb94

It is a little hard to tell but on the Futures weekly this week DID fail to make a new high. Last week touched 4050.75 and this week saw a high of 4049.25. With the weekly 50ema clearly being resistance this is going to be our key level to watch next week of 4050. However, we have found really nice support on the weekly 20ema down near 3925.

That blue rising wedge support line sits at 4050 and unless we open and hold that then we should expect a retrace next week.

Bear market resistance for futures weekly sits at 4120 for next week with key level resistance at 4085.

https://preview.redd.it/zxoy9dumu52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=4610cca74471ee47c75bac9044ddb593dd837f70

So looking ahead to next week… we got some gnarly data coming out AND we got JPOW speaking at 130pm Wednesday where he WILL be answering questions. Honestly with this economic data lineup I would not be surprised to see a choppy Monday/ Tuesday (maybe slightly green) and see a pretty large sell off the rest of the week.

Looking at tesla it was once again the victim. Having yet again another large pre market that by open was miniscule and led to a red day. This may be the third or 4th time in the last two weeks I have seen this happen.

https://preview.redd.it/03xdh7gnu52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=292916e550abff0a04403ca92e3ae65790a37eff

I posted this analysis of Tesla and its history of drops followed by pops since September. Well we are at day 3 of the pop and we are looking at about a 11.7% move from that bottom to current HOD. That’s pretty damn close to the average 4.2 day pop of 11.81%.

I actually was pretty tempted to play puts on Tesla due to this trend but I did want to wait out Monday. I am seeing a nice double top right at 185.2 resistance. However, with Tesla holding the daily 8ema and still holding that green support line I was more nervous to jump into puts. There is a chance this pop could last another day or two and we could see a test of the daily 20ema near 192.5 Monday or of the red falling wedge resistance at 190.1 Monday. However, unless Tesla opens green and holds 185.2 Monday then we should break support line and I will be looking at the next leg down.

Historically speaking… we should look for about a 7day drop of 17.8%… so assuming that today was the top that means by December 6th we should look for a drop to about 152.2.

https://preview.redd.it/cnn1c94ou52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=57919b800333bc00236f962904d39d30c572d6a2

Looking at Tesla falling wedge and the support line of that for December 6th that would give us a support bounce of about 150.6, however, if you look at this previous drop we did not touch the support line completely.

https://preview.redd.it/lm2pctnou52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=80413b5e31ec861be90cc56bc6ef5df60a934677

Tesla weekly did break through the red bear channel resistance. This is the resistance if we use support from the October 3rd and 10th weekly candles and project it to the peak of the October 31st candle. However, there is also a blue bear channel using the peak of September 19th and October 31st candles.

https://preview.redd.it/qd66zu6pu52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a8bcd54fec76cc8d5322d362d185ea62dae7a5c

It would then make our weekly chart look like this. I personally put far more weight into the blue bear channel than I do the red bear channel. That would mean we actually did not break through resistance and have resistance pegged at that magical 185.3 level next week. If Tesla holds under that level all week then that is a rejection of the bear channel and should bring more down side. I am seeing a bullish reversal dragonfly doji candle formed here, however, we DID fail to close back over the daily 200ema. This daily 200ema next week could act as resistance and form a double top which would lead to further downside.

Key support- 166.4 -> 154.2

Key resistance- 192.9 -> 207.2

https://preview.redd.it/xafx75tpu52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d27fa05bec208939799891cf8c2593fcd8de71e

The VIX is finally nearing that danger zone. That lower red highlighted channel of 19.7 to 16.5. Every time a “peak” on SPY has been put in the VIX has broken under 19.7 or touched it first.

I am really eyeing a case of VIX touching 19.7 or below Monday or Tuesday this week with SPY rejecting 405-410 area and then come Wednesday through Friday we see a pretty large drop due to JPOW and the economic data coming out.

$5k/10% challenge-

https://preview.redd.it/155mce9qu52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f045fb6ee363d1358a1275b2bfcadc68d4e8bb1

Another week of green here on the Challenge closing out with a net profit of $980 this week and total profits over the two weeks ive been running this challenge of $1740.

Daily log-

Unfortunately I struggled this week quite a bit. However, my biggest losses came from once again holding too long.

https://preview.redd.it/9rcmaswqu52a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e23f4b2e924df8389c8d228a15fbbe843e4d63e

Looking at my weekly analysis here I actually impressively hit 100% win rate on all my SPY scalps this week. Had a pretty mild profit between the normal scalps/ $5k scalps of $1980 this week. I only scalped a total of 7 times this week with 3 of those coming from today. I just didn’t see a lot of good setups this week for scalps and struggled finding a good read on the technical earlier in the week.

Looking at my level to level plays this is actually the first week I believe in about 7 weeks of playing level to level/ swings that I have close out my week red for strictly the level to level plays. The biggest mistake this week was my stop losses on those. I started the week off with a pretty large -50% loss on Tesla. It had popped from about -40% to -25% and then immediately to -50% before I could really do much on a massive drop. I also took a put on FOMC minute day to -78% that had I mitigated my loss properly at -20% or the -5% right before minutes I would have actually ended my week green. I as I had said was FAR too bearish for FOMC minutes (which I think come Wednesday when JPOW speaks im going to find out I was right but market didn’t react that way) and burnt myself.

I also took a pretty large loss on a SPX call overnight last night. I have not seen the IV crush the way it did on SPX/ SPY overnight. I know we had the holiday and everything but for SPY opening barely down 0.1% I believe it was and for my strike being the first strike OTM I was extremely shocked to see my position open -65%. I was able to get out around -60% but that one hurt a lot. I don’t think anyone who played anything (unless they sold options) won with a swing today.

Morale of the story is I let my losers run more than I let me winners run. This week I failed to properly mitigate my losses and that was a big mistake and one I will continue to learn from next week.

Overall closing out the week at a total -$594 which is not bad in all reality but it is still my first red week since the week of September 12th. Looking to get back on a good track Monday and get back on that green gain train.

I hope everyone has a great weekend!

I will have YOUTUBE up later tonight or tomorrow (got some people doing work at the house and don’t have quiet time to make the video).

submitted by /u/DaddyDersch
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